No Holiday Parade for Macy's

Equities Research Analyst

Macy’s reported November and December 2018 Holiday sales that fell short of Street expectations, resulting in shares plummeting 18%. 1010data’s products uncovered signals of this development well ahead of the company’s report. TickerView™ Visits indicated weakening store traffic during December and TickerView™ Credit & Debit sensed weak revenue and lower average transaction value behind the disappointing results.

1010data’s newest dataset, TickerView™ Visits, tracks visits to physical locations at over 700 entities. Our Visits index indicated lower store traffic on a year-over-year basis throughout 4Q, with the greatest drop occurring the two weeks before Christmas. Although Macy’s attributed some of the disappointing results to temporary fulfillment issues following a November 25 fire in its Martinsville, Virginia distribution center, TickerView™ Visits indicated that store traffic was weak well in advance of this development.

TickerView™ Credit also indicated weak sales trends at Macy’s throughout November and December. The sales index and average spend per transaction captured negative growth every week in the quarter and showed improvement in the post-Christmas sale period. Lower YoY store traffic combined with promotions drove the disappointing Holiday sales results.

TickerView™ Receipt tracks online purchases and indicated that ecommerce was the one bright-spot in Macy’s Holiday sales report, with strong double-digit gains during the critical Black Friday/Cyber Monday week and post-Christmas sale period.  


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